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by Patrick O’Shaughnessy

Peter is a geopolitical strategist who combines expertise in demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to assess an uncertain future. Before founding his own strategy firm, Peter helped develop the analytical models for Stratfor, one of the world’s premier private intelligence companies.  

I came across Peter via his books the Accidental Superpower and the Absent Superpower. We discuss America’s changing place in the world and four additional countries poised to do well in the future. Spoiler alert: he believes the U.S. is particularly well positioned.  

While we don’t discuss equity markets per se, all of what we talk about will obviously impact companies across the world for the remainder of our careers. Please enjoy our conversation. 

Show Notes 

1:32 – (First Question) – His model of the world  

4:05 – What makes for a strategically advantaged country 

5:35 – History of the Bretton Woods agreement and the order that it created 

8:47 – The security apparatus that has made globalization of manufacturing possible 

12:04 – The US’s pullback from being the naval police of global trade 

12:08 – The Absent Superpower: The Shale Revolution and a World Without America 

14:57 – How energy has played into America’s disinterest abroad 

21:52 – Moving towards global disorder 

24:55 – Characterizing factors that will impact countries in any collapse 

27:38 – How this manifest in physical conflict 

32:44 – How the new world order will end the ease of innovation we are accustomed to today 

34:13 – What gets the US to reengage before this new world order 

38:08 – Demographics that make a country prepared for this, Japan as an example 

40:57 – A look at China 

43:59 – What the story is about Argentina 

45:52 – How North America fares based on their geography and relationships 

49:50 – The trader wars that are currently ongoing 

52:17 – US political system 

56:15 – Most important policy issues moving forward 

58:27 – His view on American infrastructure 

1:00:33 – Technologies that interest him the most 

1:02:55 – What he is watching most closely in his research, starting with media 

1:05:59 – What are and should be the countries of the future 

1:06:55 – Kindest thing anyone has done for Peter 

1:07:32 – Favorite places he’s been 

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